сряда, 27 май 2009 г.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb - The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable





Nassim Nicholas Taleb - The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
Publisher: Random House 2007 | 366 Pages | ISBN: 1400063515 | PDF | 7 MB

Four hundred years ago, Francis Bacon warned that our minds are wired to deceive us. "Beware the fallacies into which undisciplined thinkers most easily fall--they are the real distorting prisms of human nature." Chief among them: "Assuming more order than exists in chaotic nature." Now consider the typical stock market report: "Today investors bid shares down out of concern over Iranian oil production." Sigh. We're still doing it.

Our brains are wired for narrative, not statistical uncertainty. And so we tell ourselves simple stories to explain complex thing we don't--and, most importantly, can't--know. The truth is that we have no idea why stock markets go up or down on any given day, and whatever reason we give is sure to be grossly simplified, if not flat out wrong...




5 коментара:

Николай Павлов каза...

Не е ли вече крайно време тази книга да бъде издадена и в България?

Анонимен каза...

Излиза след пет дена (на 1-ви юни) на български :-)

NMMM.NU каза...

aaaa super

Анонимен каза...

This subject was recently a topic of a scientific study that found that almost 40% of women
had been raped and confirmed the doctor's statements about Farmacia On Line-type medicines. With the FDA conisdering an approval of" farmacia on line For Women," Jimmy Kimmel took the time to pre-compose this message and words are eluding me faster than my thoughts can generate. I write a lot about the Leatherback's population in the Mediterranean.
With the world in turmoil there is a deeper point.



my web-site; try this out

Анонимен каза...

I am curious to find out what blog system you are
utilizing? I'm experiencing some minor security problems with my latest website and I would like to find something more risk-free. Do you have any suggestions?

My page home cellulite treatment