сряда, 27 май 2009 г.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb - The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable





Nassim Nicholas Taleb - The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
Publisher: Random House 2007 | 366 Pages | ISBN: 1400063515 | PDF | 7 MB

Four hundred years ago, Francis Bacon warned that our minds are wired to deceive us. "Beware the fallacies into which undisciplined thinkers most easily fall--they are the real distorting prisms of human nature." Chief among them: "Assuming more order than exists in chaotic nature." Now consider the typical stock market report: "Today investors bid shares down out of concern over Iranian oil production." Sigh. We're still doing it.

Our brains are wired for narrative, not statistical uncertainty. And so we tell ourselves simple stories to explain complex thing we don't--and, most importantly, can't--know. The truth is that we have no idea why stock markets go up or down on any given day, and whatever reason we give is sure to be grossly simplified, if not flat out wrong...




5 коментара:

Николай Павлов каза...

Не е ли вече крайно време тази книга да бъде издадена и в България?

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Излиза след пет дена (на 1-ви юни) на български :-)

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